NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ccba12f85eb39dea3d150210993f6759a7e9bdb0cb2c66f8aa3c9f98c85086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 55c | 11,864$6,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,525.44 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 8,000$3,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Under | 56c | 6,143$3,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,440 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 55c | 5,272$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.69 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 2,893$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.2 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…103abacked Over | 45c | 2,458$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 46c | 2,391$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.3 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,713$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.26 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 1,600$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 1,186$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.53 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 55c | 1,071$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 501.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.01 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 451.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.83 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +58%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 302.25$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 44c | 268.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Under | 56c | 225$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 126.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…cf43backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Under | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 56c | 29.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Under | 56c | 23.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 41.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Jaguars won
- Jets vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 40.5Over won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5Over won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-12.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-14.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-20.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.