Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d82c680c3ca0de7a9ffd6eec2f5d1083ac3d9820f0a76990e5f4ad91405c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 479.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 14c | 279.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 209.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 203.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 195$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 78c | 187.05$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 172.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 7c | 156.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 153.66$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 141.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 21c | 141.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 10c | 138.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 126.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 119.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 36c | 106.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 26c | 106.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 98.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 28c | 91.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 17c | 90.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 89.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 17c | 84.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 77.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 69.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 75c | 66.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 63.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 61.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 60.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 30c | 59.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 56.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 33c | 52.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 50.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 47.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 33c | 38.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 38.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 33.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 71c | 30.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.