TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d42…f124backed No38c700.47$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.9252322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e8e…9665backed No77c517.8$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25032041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c485.02$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.686,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No16c476.24$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c441.45$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No69c424.31$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6514372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No17c377.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8816641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c367.94$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.038,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c310.4$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.682,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes49c309.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2431836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No16c305.49$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.436,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c282.79$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.289,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No40c275.3$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.569066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c272.74$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.524,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No18c262.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.722,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No79c254.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.073,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No51c252.69$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6964460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c233.32$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No19c210.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes22c188.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No47c187.9$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.311,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes51c177.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7318035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes50c174$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes42c166.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9938655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes18c162.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.281,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…e44dbacked No68c148$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c133.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.927,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7dde…71f5backed Yes61c132.88$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.194866.7%32 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes30c132.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.425058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No54c129.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.743,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No52c125.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes78c121.41$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1134748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes21c117.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.832,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c117.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes50c114.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8545540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes40c114.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8317926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No65c98.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.161,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No26c98.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.411,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No50c91.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.411,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No46c90.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8533746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes50c90.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.179744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No22c88.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3714119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes39c86.62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.841,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7116134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…f277backed No60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed No45c77.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.787263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes62c74.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3311947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed Yes42c72.57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.822857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No61c70.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8223845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No51c69.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.463,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No47c67.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5619648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes40c63.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No48c63.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked No41c61.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.447855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb033…4f19backed No46c61.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.315343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No70c60.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8419947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997a…4cbebacked No73c57.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9219565.6%128 W · 67 L-0.8wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes31c55.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.341,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No75c52.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.068466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes67c51.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.771,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No50c50.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2344567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3327328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.745,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6b…33d4backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52055%11 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.515246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.53240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes22c49.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.999931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No45c49.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.249145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes27c48.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes53c46.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8239346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No61c45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.68450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes44c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6847738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes31c43.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.912,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes44c41.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2420438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes64c40.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No47c37.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.816150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes78c36.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.751,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde15…2ccfbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes54c32.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.875,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71d9…19f8backed Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes75c28.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.182450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No47c26.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5515345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No51c24.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2628866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c23.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.772,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No52c23.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2221451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e8…4c39backed Yes53c20.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.751643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc1…539cbacked Yes54c20.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.883756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.