Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251391540ffef2e6e61868b7ec897a74448e24db9123401243a2580ee3d532bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 38c | 700.47$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.92 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 77c | 517.8$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 485.02$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 476.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 441.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 69c | 424.31$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.65 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 17c | 377.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 367.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 310.4$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 49c | 309.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 305.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 282.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 40c | 275.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 272.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 262.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 254.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 51c | 252.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 233.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 210.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 188.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 187.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 51c | 177.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 174$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 42c | 166.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 18c | 162.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…e44dbacked No | 68c | 148$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 133.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 61c | 132.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 30c | 132.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 129.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 125.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 78c | 121.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 21c | 117.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 117.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 50c | 114.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 40c | 114.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 98.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 98.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 50c | 91.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 46c | 90.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 50c | 90.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 22c | 88.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 86.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…f277backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 45c | 77.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 62c | 74.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 42c | 72.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 61c | 70.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 69.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 47c | 67.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 40c | 63.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 48c | 63.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 41c | 61.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 46c | 61.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 70c | 60.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 73c | 57.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 55.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 52.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 51.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…33d4backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 45c | 49.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 48.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 53c | 46.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 61c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 31c | 43.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 44c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 40.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 47c | 37.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 78c | 36.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde15…2ccfbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 32.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 75c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 47c | 26.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 51c | 24.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 23.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 23.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…539cbacked Yes | 54c | 20.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.