Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e250e91b9b8b313d6008e46272f05b16801c031eefea02c8e2b352c1e4c586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 33c | 16,854$5,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,561.71 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 9,647$6,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.59 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Under | 67c | 7,090$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.55 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 33c | 2,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 19c | 1,173$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 97 | 32%31 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 33c | 1,021$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.36 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Over | 32c | 741.52$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bf…3a84backed Under | 67c | 732.58$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Over | 7c | 712.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Under | 74c | 699.99$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 311.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked Over | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1b…b64cbacked Over | 29c | 216$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…bd38backed Over | 29c | 210$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 32c | 201$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 191 | 45%86 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 32c | 178.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 32.9%75 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 86.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 68c | 76.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 72c | 72.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 33c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 29c | 59.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc198…0e8cbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 71c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.