Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c4a6b4df3d0bf4e4c3a2b9cf6e0764cabc9d7196ff11d79b4c14711701e7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 2,844$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.65 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 2c | 696.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 43c | 543.52$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.18 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 43c | 416.19$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 317.96$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 58c | 309.94$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 261.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 252.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 229.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 226.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 43c | 209.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 191.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 162.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 153.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 147.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 53c | 142.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 142.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 134$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 124.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 41c | 121.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 121.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…424bbacked Yes | 43c | 108.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…f722backed Yes | 43c | 105.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 47c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 100.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7e87backed Yes | 43c | 88.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3a55backed Yes | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 84.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed Yes | 45c | 83.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 80.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 45c | 78.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 76.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 57c | 69.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 42c | 69.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 67.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 67.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 65.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 64.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 38c | 61.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 61.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 50c | 60.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 45c | 55.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 50.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 49.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 64c | 49.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 57c | 44.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…f085backed No | 59c | 43.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 41c | 41.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 45c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed Yes | 44c | 39.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 43c | 38.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 38.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 38.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…7db8backed No | 59c | 38.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 70c | 37.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…6041backed Yes | 45c | 36.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 32.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 57c | 30.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 29.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…7efcbacked Yes | 45c | 29.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 54c | 29.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 53c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 25.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed No | 59c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 53c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.