Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e1b548df7fc7502792c297310c86ec9aee9b39c1ec1d2a3e55046b2e832eebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 867.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 27c | 429.55$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 11c | 397.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 317.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 16c | 316.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 268.76$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 222$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 196.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 193$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 175.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 158.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 152.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 152.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 151.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 146.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 143.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 143.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 140.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 62c | 138.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 41c | 132.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 125.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 123.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 42c | 116.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 116.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 114.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 27c | 85.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 44c | 81.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 80.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 79.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 76.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 72.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 42c | 71.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 27c | 68.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 27c | 65.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 68c | 65.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 63.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 62.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 35c | 61.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 63c | 60.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 33c | 60.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 59.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 43c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 37c | 55.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 40c | 54.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 53.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 52.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 80c | 52.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 50.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 47.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 41.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 41.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 59c | 38.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 38.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 78c | 38.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 33c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 36.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 31.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 31.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 31.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 26.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 24.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 21.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 78c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 18.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 72c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 63c | 16.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed No | 71c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.