TailMyPicks
Market

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Will Lille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,555 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d32…f958backed No54c1,343$729 inLost-$728.7850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No30c1,000$300 inLost-$3004348.8%21 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x755a…b4a9backed Yes70c1,000$700 inWon+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No29c918.95$263 inLost-$263.1424642.3%104 W · 142 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4919…067ebacked Yes56c276.3$155 inWon+$120.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes69c273.75$188 inWon+$86.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes22c272.73$60 inWon+$213.13633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No17c259.29$43 inLost-$43.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes11c225.57$25 inWon+$200.75728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+75.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed No29c200$58 inLost-$57.712065%13 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1873…37b6backed Yes55c191.45$104 inWon+$86.982630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c97.75$13 inWon+$84.79825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes13c96$13 inWon+$83.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+97.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…b82dbacked Yes27c60.25$16 inWon+$44.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+276.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c60$14 inWon+$46.2229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No43c43.84$19 inLost-$18.87825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0323…a333backed Yes31c43.41$14 inWon+$29.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+220.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes45c38.96$17 inWon+$21.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c57…eb35backed Yes61c35.26$22 inWon+$13.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes56c35$20 inWon+$15.42128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No48c22$11 inLost-$10.561573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes52c22$11 inWon+$10.561643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…5e79backed No70c21.51$15 inLost-$14.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e86…0399backed Yes60c18.81$11 inWon+$7.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.