Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc925d8eac7eb564b1952a614f85c1aadf7ae956581a3bf36a0d53cfd797df42f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 17c | 866.07$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 21c | 725.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.91 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 567.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 13c | 342.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 336.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 310.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 79c | 252$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 251.19$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 15c | 243.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 75c | 237.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 10c | 225.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 224.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 13c | 220.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 201.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…47a5backed Yes | 16c | 190.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +331.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 7c | 187.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 16c | 180.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…bdd0backed Yes | 17c | 175.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 15c | 175.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 73c | 164.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 12c | 161.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 13c | 158.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 79c | 158.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 17c | 147.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 78c | 133.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 128.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 9c | 124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 110.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 31c | 106.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 66c | 95.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e5…c08fbacked Yes | 16c | 91.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 21c | 89.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 33c | 89.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 21c | 88.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 22c | 88.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 21c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 37c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 20c | 81.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 41c | 73.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 20c | 71.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 69c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 23c | 65.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 20c | 52.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 39c | 48.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 45.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 27c | 39.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 30.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 38c | 26.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 67c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 76c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.