TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes6c894.18$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.051,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes12c630.39$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.5915131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No5c523.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.822,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c505.83$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes55c495.48$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.925,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes18c333.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.3592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes58c323.03$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.562,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No4c316$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.132,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c280.22$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes16c274.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.5445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes39c265.18$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.931,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Yes15c257.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.7223334.3%80 W · 153 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c243.4$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes11c229.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.961929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x952d…ee48backed Yes18c223.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.331118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes19c208.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c183.82$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.821,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes9c174.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.461,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d5…47a5backed Yes12c153.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+331.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes9c148.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.344734%16 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c138.37$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.584,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c137$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes15c130.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.894513.3%6 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes24c128.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9618567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No77c126.66$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c120.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes67c113.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.262,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes23c110.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.471,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes22c108.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.311,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes12c103.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1340525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7840025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7541767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No65c92.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8247866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c87.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes23c85.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2914823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No68c79.94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No78c78.55$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.281,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes20c78.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4827421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes24c78.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.63,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No76c75.59$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.454,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes22c73.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes19c69.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3817144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No61c68.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8de…e8a1backed Yes78c63.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.651520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes35c60.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0813738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c58.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes21c56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No57c54.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.26,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c53.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes29c50.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.222853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes31c49.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0a7…8865backed Yes23c46.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+85%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No39c45.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes27c44.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.871,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked No79c44.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.892,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes23c43.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4827029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes33c42.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.185543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c40.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No62c35.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.862,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.052,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c30.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.387,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked No74c30.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2820438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.675,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No79c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.922454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No69c28.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8217443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No52c27.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1619662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No67c25.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8847569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No58c23.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No68c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6827769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.983,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No72c21.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610973.4%80 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No60c20.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.635168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.812174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf913…9e87backed No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.69066.7%60 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No79c18.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No62c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5928660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked No72c16.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.494940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked No79c15.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8713050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No73c13.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No74c13.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.078,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0eb…9b18backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.