Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe51e12e2d1f021ce13cbc0a8456da9b575d71bbcde00cd8c19709afb39724310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 894.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 12c | 630.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.59 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 523.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 505.83$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 495.48$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 333.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.35 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 323.03$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 4c | 316$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 280.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 274.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.54 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 265.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.93 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 15c | 257.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 243.4$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 11c | 229.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.9 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 18c | 223.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 208.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.42 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 183.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 174.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…47a5backed Yes | 12c | 153.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +331.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 9c | 148.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 138.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 137$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 15c | 130.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 24c | 128.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 126.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 120.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 113.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 110.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 108.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 103.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 92.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 87.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 23c | 85.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 68c | 79.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 78.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 20c | 78.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 78.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 75.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 73.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 19c | 69.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 68.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…e8a1backed Yes | 78c | 63.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 35c | 60.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 58.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 54.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 53.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 29c | 50.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 49.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a7…8865backed Yes | 23c | 46.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 39c | 45.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 27c | 44.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked No | 79c | 44.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 33c | 42.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 40.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 35.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 74c | 30.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 69c | 28.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 52c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 25.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 72c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 20.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 18.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked No | 72c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 73c | 13.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 13.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.