F1 · resolved market
Will it rain during the Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc93bbe4bc3136aaddb8b3a3ba37e7685c8153dc8dd10f4d4fd19092138dc3175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,191$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +387.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220d…9237backed Yes | 28c | 576.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 27c | 570.31$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.29 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…6b21backed No | 2c | 555.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 19c | 415.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.08 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 21c | 330$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +366.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 78c | 303.41$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 6c | 245.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 22c | 200.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +348.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…fa05backed No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…e9d1backed No | 72c | 145.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 53c | 101.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 74c | 99.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed No | 64c | 98.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…aabebacked Yes | 78c | 57.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Yes | 53c | 56.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 22c | 50.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 27c | 45.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…258dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…e1fabacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +96%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 33.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked No | 69c | 24.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.