Champions League · resolved market
Will Lille win on 2025-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9580a4b04530cf288dd67e4bdde451291d7eb28875f3edc7b89dbd9e7151f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x431d…a7d9backed Yes | 17c | 14,500$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 18c | 3,050$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 18c | 2,741$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 15c | 936.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 11c | 915$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 14c | 682.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 12c | 621.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 17c | 594.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…15dcbacked Yes | 18c | 566.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255b…7284backed Yes | 17c | 562.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 10c | 484.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa736…071dbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes | 17c | 475.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…a5a1backed Yes | 17c | 387.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 18c | 314.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…3430backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…8028backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Yes | 18c | 275.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…d781backed Yes | 17c | 271.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784c…bde3backed Yes | 19c | 257.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…ee83backed Yes | 15c | 201.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes | 18c | 170.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 18c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 22c | 159$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3390…95d6backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed Yes | 15c | 136.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…72e3backed Yes | 16c | 135.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…d3d1backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f2a6backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a7…bc10backed Yes | 18c | 109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…07e0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…8559backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b7…af8bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b149backed Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5cdbbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…b361backed Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…b3bcbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed Yes | 16c | 74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…aeb1backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…611dbacked Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…23dabacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…ff2abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9a…348dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…5f0cbacked Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…16d0backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…1350backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…eadfbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…9d5cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lille win on 2025-03-04?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.