Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ca4eb1852da0fe22c4cdfa2d9d4a25e897a9bc23a7a8f80b90c8989addc9c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,126$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.7 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,069$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.88 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 2c | 801.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 15c | 733.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 519.6$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 511.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 20c | 489.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.48 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 72c | 338.33$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 275.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 75c | 260.13$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 250.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 244.34$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.86 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 182.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.05 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 56c | 142.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 127.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 125.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 10c | 124.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 41c | 122.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 115.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 106.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 12c | 103.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 101.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 99.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 85.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 48c | 69.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 46c | 68.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 30c | 63.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 35c | 57.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 52.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 35c | 47.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 68c | 41.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 33c | 36.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.