Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa599f0c2b3b1b88fdbc89f8890a35bece7a8dc2825728d2de7793607fd00dd93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,875$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.87 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,214$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 595$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 519.64$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 3c | 466.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 347.21$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 31c | 300.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.51 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 29c | 255.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.48 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 6c | 246.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 63c | 211.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 207.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 33c | 193.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 28c | 182.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 31c | 159.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 147.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 145.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 8c | 134.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 126.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 116.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 114.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 29c | 110.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 64c | 96.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 92.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 31c | 85.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 84.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 54.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 52.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 47.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 75c | 41.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 79c | 40.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 39c | 32.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…680abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 78c | 24.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 78c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.