TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Orbit Anonymoof Orbit Anonymo, devils.one
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,569
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,569 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb5b…f243backed devils.one55c1,449$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.341,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed devils.one56c1,427$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.161,30138.6%502 W · 799 L-65.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Orbit Anonymo63c1,244$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.8585652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed devils.one59c1,073$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.72,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked devils.one57c1,023$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.5826448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked devils.one58c1,007$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.1853255.1%293 W · 239 L+23.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed devils.one1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13651.5%1 W · 64 L+0.2wins0.00per pick1cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed devils.one1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed devils.one7c961.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.081,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked devils.one1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Orbit Anonymo44c705.33$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.6350749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked devils.one58c663.02$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9867056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed Orbit Anonymo39c646.1$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.224029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed devils.one58c644.25$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.52,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Orbit Anonymo57c549.14$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.981,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Orbit Anonymo41c547.58$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0724741.3%102 W · 145 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Orbit Anonymo31c509.8$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.378043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed Orbit Anonymo50c507.51$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1422932.3%74 W · 155 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Orbit Anonymo42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+87.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Orbit Anonymo40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+73%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Orbit Anonymo50c471.07$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.081,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbd…7340backed devils.one64c459.54$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed devils.one71c400$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.892,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Orbit Anonymo39c374.86$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.173,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Orbit Anonymo43c352$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.0414535.2%51 W · 94 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Orbit Anonymo44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.9143642.4%185 W · 251 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Orbit Anonymo40c323.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9160053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c8…86b4backed devils.one61c315.58$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1919157.1%109 W · 82 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…5901backed Orbit Anonymo56c312.32$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.046045%27 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed devils.one36c308.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0439246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe703…37ddbacked devils.one79c303.91$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7315556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Orbit Anonymo43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1711,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed devils.one4c292.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9214231%44 W · 98 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Orbit Anonymo44c290.71$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2216850.6%85 W · 83 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ba5…fc9bbacked Orbit Anonymo46c287.21$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-64%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed devils.one4c279.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2299338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed devils.one32c270.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.391,72629.4%507 W · 1,219 L-124.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed devils.one4c267.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2317325.4%44 W · 129 L-19.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed devils.one49c262.79$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5469539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Orbit Anonymo52c260.46$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.951,05447.2%497 W · 557 L-4.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed devils.one55c257.81$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6712970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed devils.one9c242.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8326443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed devils.one9c236.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked Orbit Anonymo36c225.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.618540%34 W · 51 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51d9…8116backed Orbit Anonymo25c212.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.151741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+94.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac7b…7cebbacked devils.one5c209.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.479037.8%34 W · 56 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed devils.one56c205.15$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8820756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed devils.one27c204.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.763,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Orbit Anonymo43c200.17$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.124759.1%146 W · 101 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f0…b7aebacked devils.one75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503262.5%20 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Orbit Anonymo38c198.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6274949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Orbit Anonymo32c183.65$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.392,82041.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Orbit Anonymo43c180.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.911,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…511dbacked Orbit Anonymo55c177.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.211538.3%44 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed devils.one38c177.11$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991,92335.9%690 W · 1,233 L-98.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Orbit Anonymo43c168.45$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0279650.6%403 W · 393 L+47.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Orbit Anonymo60c163.14$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5535164.1%225 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed devils.one56c154.68$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6260855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked devils.one59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.553649.8%267 W · 269 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Orbit Anonymo41c144.69$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3782454.9%452 W · 372 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2051…f9f1backed devils.one72c136.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3149253.5%263 W · 229 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed devils.one54c135.39$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.761,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked devils.one13c132.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6433125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed devils.one9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x081f…d5c0backed Orbit Anonymo46c125.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.932853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed devils.one12c118.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.951,62246.7%757 W · 865 L-25.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed devils.one11c117.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112528%7 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x156b…c533backed devils.one70c115.44$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5121763.6%138 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Orbit Anonymo27c108.09$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0815166.2%100 W · 51 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked devils.one20c107$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.872,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Orbit Anonymo21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7963646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6af6…c777backed Orbit Anonymo49c98.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Orbit Anonymo42c95.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.525960.2%156 W · 103 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Orbit Anonymo41c90$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.11,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Orbit Anonymo33c84.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.752,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb7…9595backed devils.one69c77.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked devils.one58c75.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5323559.6%140 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked devils.one66c74.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.971,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf3f…7d4abacked devils.one19c71.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5111449.1%56 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked devils.one49c71.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.222,33640.4%943 W · 1,393 L-58.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea6…53acbacked devils.one55c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed devils.one77c68.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.91,53643.8%672 W · 864 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Orbit Anonymo32c67.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.241,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed devils.one61c65.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8341156.7%233 W · 178 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x281f…544cbacked devils.one50c60.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.564537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked devils.one22c59.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9540441.8%169 W · 235 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Orbit Anonymo41c55.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.842,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…71e0backed Orbit Anonymo43c51.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.575839.7%23 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed Orbit Anonymo42c51.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.964030%12 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Orbit Anonymo72c49.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8357772.3%417 W · 160 L-1.8wins0.00per pick73cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed devils.one58c48.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.276149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed devils.one68c45.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8917349.7%86 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Orbit Anonymo55c43.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5234860.9%212 W · 136 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed devils.one43c42.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9310346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked devils.one47c38.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.011233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b04…f792backed devils.one77c38.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5939266.6%261 W · 131 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed devils.one79c37.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6210452.9%55 W · 49 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Orbit Anonymo34c36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7630146.2%139 W · 162 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76a…47c0backed devils.one57c33.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2428756.1%161 W · 126 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Orbit Anonymo45c31.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1360347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.