MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5cf2cfa0ea523d6cbfae58f240f1a1ccc030e8a032822ebc51ea0d6753e142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 4,351$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…9adabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 3,333$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 1,267$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 1,173$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 450$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 438$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 256.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 225$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 100.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 67.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 31.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 17.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.