MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa88f3ac05747a148d31246e01f64922a8e1d4565b6269cb6f740991de4bce43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 20,941$8,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,854.62 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 17,456$10,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,742.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 10,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 9,242$5,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,881.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 3,506$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 3,002$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.73 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 2,077$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.62 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 28c | 1,491$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.34 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 1,472$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.31 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 603.38$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.64 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 568$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.92 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 515.78$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…9ea9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 510$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 455.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 420$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 415.97$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.56 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…200ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 386.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 223.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 211.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 169.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 161.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 157.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 128.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 112.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 106.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…14e5backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 92.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 86.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 84.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 80.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 78.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 78.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 72.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a58…5fb7backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 64.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 36.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 22.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 16.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.