MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc07e136641173a49dbd3689637611cf4954a18562c79da095b68663e735b2226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,899.88 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 9,169$3,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 3,970$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 55c | 3,910$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.63 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 3,719$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 41c | 3,592$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.29 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 42c | 1,099$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.43 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 561.05$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 45c | 429.56$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.56 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 343.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.87 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 46c | 336.68$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 324.87$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Under | 52c | 317.37$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 41c | 303.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 249.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 41c | 232$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.88 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Under | 61c | 210$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 192.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 115.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 112$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Under | 41c | 101.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 41c | 95.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Under | 41c | 94.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 90.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 61.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 46c | 49.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 46c | 48.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…6e89backed Over | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 50c | 42.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 42.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 53c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 44c | 31.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 56c | 30.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 62c | 24.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 45c | 23.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 53c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.