MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9227bb35abfbd4b7d8234bd90cc433a9e862a8629adc6e311f8a675c15216b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 7,703$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,612.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 5,172$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 2,999$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 354.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 309.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 152$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 146.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 121.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 100.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…a230backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b82ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 66.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…f9d8backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 64.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…0860backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 53.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 46.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 43.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…0fbcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 43.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 41.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…bc4abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.