Tennis · resolved market
Muchova vs. Noskova: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5e3eeb02c284da3d66beff75e30bdafcafd9b82fe5f5ba9fe751acfe85f8c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 16,285$8,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,542.56 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under | 46c | 12,489$5,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,786.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 6,558$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,147.79 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 67c | 5,000$3,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.56 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Over | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Under | 33c | 1,985$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 33c | 1,454$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.57 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…49bcbacked Under | 33c | 1,364$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Over | 50c | 1,155$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 58c | 1,093$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.51 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 53c | 1,055$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…4fd0backed Under | 34c | 762$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 34c | 630.92$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Over | 31c | 503.65$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.52 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 48c | 416$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 36c | 329.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 48c | 231.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Under | 48c | 202$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed Over | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 34c | 178$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 66c | 177.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 40c | 158.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…387fbacked Over | 66c | 145.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 51c | 117.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 48c | 111.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed Over | 64c | 97.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…07c3backed Over | 64c | 91.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…8dfcbacked Over | 66c | 74.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…5e3dbacked Under | 64c | 62.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under | 33c | 47.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 69c | 44.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 282 | 64.2%181 W · 101 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 67c | 36.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…9ff4backed Over | 53c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Muchova vs. Noskova: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Karolina Muchova vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Muchova vs. Noskova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Noskova: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Noskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Muchova vs. Noskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs NoskovaNoskova won
- Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs NoskovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda NoskovaLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.