WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca69e3716b4ed6cf837dc2ee289cca019bf474db15bb9c2ffbf341ca74e66eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Washington Mystics, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.83 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 4,502$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,251.03 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 3,424$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.76 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 1,759$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 1,698$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.49 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics | 41c | 1,569$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.48 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 1,123$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.45 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 1,002$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…dc8dbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 901.32$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 851.43$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 48c | 834.92$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.76 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 793.2$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 781.21$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.79 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics | 45c | 627.72$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 251.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 81.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 73.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Connecticut Sun | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Washington Mystics | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 34.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…1caabacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 164.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.