TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Connecticut Sunof Washington Mystics, Connecticut Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,528

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaed0…6f18backed Connecticut Sun39c23,776$9,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,555.293250%16 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics39c14,339$5,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,570.971,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics49c13,705$6,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,762.341,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Washington Mystics3c13,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4409318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Mystics62c11,087$6,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,918.7832049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun59c9,149$5,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,788.0850646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Connecticut Sun77c5,904$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.3117656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Connecticut Sun40c5,656$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.4627449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics61c5,115$3,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.0489349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Washington Mystics7c4,461$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.918228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun38c3,891$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.7178548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Connecticut Sun69c3,889$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Washington Mystics2c3,185$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5844915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Mystics61c3,180$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.0940550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfb…84a6backed Connecticut Sun46c3,153$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Connecticut Sun48c2,923$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.0519458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun60c2,451$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.9974942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun65c2,107$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.0255255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Washington Mystics38c2,031$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.8812045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Connecticut Sun65c2,027$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.2412144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Washington Mystics22c1,890$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.313250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Washington Mystics40c1,823$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.5310634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Washington Mystics39c1,817$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.9636750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Connecticut Sun67c1,785$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.12835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Washington Mystics68c1,723$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.69933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Washington Mystics64c1,577$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0095156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun64c1,548$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.8285158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Washington Mystics17c1,545$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9531043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Washington Mystics25c1,534$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.8934726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Connecticut Sun37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9814060%84 W · 56 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Washington Mystics60c1,461$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.564766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Washington Mystics62c1,400$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8689354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Washington Mystics31c1,374$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.3510340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Washington Mystics39c1,344$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.8419428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Washington Mystics20c1,278$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Connecticut Sun78c1,276$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.765466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed Washington Mystics18c1,195$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.182466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88f9…5c03backed Washington Mystics14c1,179$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.062958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Connecticut Sun48c1,063$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.5414346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Washington Mystics14c1,041$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.372853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c41…8794backed Washington Mystics13c994.86$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed Washington Mystics64c990.84$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.149140.7%37 W · 54 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Connecticut Sun55c950.67$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.339129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea3d…524dbacked Washington Mystics62c900$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Mystics61c890.5$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.2183748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Washington Mystics62c804.21$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.619549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Washington Mystics19c793.19$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.982661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Washington Mystics42c776.04$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7238744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked Washington Mystics17c753.59$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.442751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Washington Mystics3c749.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf86…b7b4backed Washington Mystics3c748.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Washington Mystics18c669.58$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.587431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Connecticut Sun34c667.54$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5846247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Washington Mystics55c664.06$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.166956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Mystics61c604$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.4492248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Connecticut Sun37c598.9$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.311770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+45.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Washington Mystics49c549.24$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.972268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Washington Mystics41c547$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.757944.3%35 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Washington Mystics62c537.86$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.341533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb3e…b9c5backed Washington Mystics20c526.44$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.92352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Connecticut Sun76c518.17$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2831448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5d…7501backed Connecticut Sun67c513.09$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.942759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Washington Mystics38c512.07$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Mystics61c507$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.2712751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Washington Mystics42c490.58$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.730649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Connecticut Sun53c458.56$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.566437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics67c442.04$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.1799548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Connecticut Sun72c427.69$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1313844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Connecticut Sun78c425.72$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.636454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Connecticut Sun72c416.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.813036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Connecticut Sun66c402.95$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.865547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Washington Mystics36c400$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1423732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8558…8615backed Washington Mystics16c388.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.162352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Connecticut Sun52c388.11$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.414645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Washington Mystics24c382.35$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0911841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Connecticut Sun37c366.11$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.956350.8%32 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054d…97c5backed Connecticut Sun64c333.64$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Washington Mystics63c333$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.798657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x520d…e474backed Washington Mystics66c332.54$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202875%21 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Connecticut Sun38c315.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.847746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Washington Mystics64c310.76$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.814951%25 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfc50…f8debacked Connecticut Sun79c304.89$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.032944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Washington Mystics40c304.75$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9534753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Connecticut Sun35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+43.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2b…2cd8backed Washington Mystics69c289.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Washington Mystics39c286.28$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.299146.2%42 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…4f8dbacked Washington Mystics35c259.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.61070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+83.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Connecticut Sun39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.419635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Washington Mystics38c245.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9941147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6d6f…a60bbacked Washington Mystics50c240$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+68.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Washington Mystics30c238.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3816633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Connecticut Sun45c234.02$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.512958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe29…69f9backed Connecticut Sun66c227.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.272466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf224…bda7backed Connecticut Sun48c224.69$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.941020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Mystics62c222.87$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.184146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Connecticut Sun60c214.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8130347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Connecticut Sun61c200.5$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.295642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Washington Mystics50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Washington Mystics61c199.92$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9510249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Connecticut Sun53c198.51$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0661042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.