TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BESTIAof BESTIA, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$284,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 312 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked BESTIA34c62,956$21,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,550.8239249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2606…ba10backed 3DMAX67c24,791$16,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,714.323956.4%22 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed 3DMAX33c20,331$6,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,739.8114441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1d…931abacked 3DMAX66c16,217$10,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,703.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked 3DMAX66c15,459$10,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,195.2936152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BESTIA65c14,445$9,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,078.542,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed 3DMAX66c9,796$6,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,465.367537.3%28 W · 47 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BESTIA30c6,484$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,539.55,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BESTIA58c5,403$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.683,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed 3DMAX40c4,809$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,930.9812450%62 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BESTIA54c4,573$2,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.526,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked 3DMAX9c4,327$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.313043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed 3DMAX45c4,314$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.0724346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5615…3199backed 3DMAX39c3,873$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.841040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed BESTIA39c3,758$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.9131345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed 3DMAX23c3,714$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.6255738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked 3DMAX18c3,196$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.9426438.6%102 W · 162 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed BESTIA65c3,050$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.4919645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BESTIA39c3,016$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.767,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed 3DMAX66c2,967$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.2229858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BESTIA63c2,628$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.9166446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df4…0bd9backed 3DMAX38c2,513$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.991450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed 3DMAX66c2,449$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.3453746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked 3DMAX46c2,213$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.039553.7%51 W · 44 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX60c1,997$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.1372453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed 3DMAX66c1,995$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.1137445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed 3DMAX66c1,959$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.0726952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed BESTIA67c1,882$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.0629831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BESTIA62c1,835$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.882,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX34c1,701$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.935,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed 3DMAX16c1,621$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.739248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked 3DMAX65c1,578$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.135750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed 3DMAX16c1,573$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8227950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed BESTIA68c1,569$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed 3DMAX65c1,498$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.718862.5%55 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd4…39b8backed BESTIA35c1,416$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.416637.9%25 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed BESTIA36c1,410$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9936742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked 3DMAX43c1,334$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.0517850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6fd…30f0backed BESTIA70c1,316$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.718951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked BESTIA45c1,271$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.2721737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed BESTIA70c1,256$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.5549646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed BESTIA56c1,241$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.146243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed BESTIA79c1,230$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4119949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed 3DMAX20c1,226$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4446843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…30d5backed BESTIA65c1,123$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.246246.8%29 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked BESTIA63c1,100$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.9913845.7%63 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed BESTIA77c986.2$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8345058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked BESTIA30c932.78$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.187948.1%38 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195f…8c53backed 3DMAX61c893.72$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed BESTIA35c829.25$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.7232042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked BESTIA30c823.88$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.7252636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed 3DMAX39c805.96$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.877755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked BESTIA40c749.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.221,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed 3DMAX36c707.46$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3627443.1%118 W · 156 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked BESTIA35c690.03$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.871,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed 3DMAX13c679.48$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.892,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked 3DMAX35c635.74$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8748948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed 3DMAX10c617.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.710426%27 W · 77 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed 3DMAX64c600$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38414454.2%78 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed 3DMAX40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24031444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed BESTIA36c599.99$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.998242.7%35 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed 3DMAX66c588.11$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.4233553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed 3DMAX34c581.29$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3791743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed BESTIA35c549.14$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9424429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed 3DMAX47c499.56$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.361338.2%234 W · 379 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BESTIA35c480.5$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.335,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed 3DMAX28c455.49$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2757641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked 3DMAX44c439.27$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2881751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BESTIA74c436.93$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.22,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…bc3cbacked BESTIA57c419.42$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.232334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed BESTIA73c415.53$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.555248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed 3DMAX72c407.08$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0526075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed BESTIA71c400$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3314137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked BESTIA38c397.53$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.235747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed BESTIA34c380.03$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98f6…79d2backed 3DMAX66c371.06$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.937752%196 W · 181 L+1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked 3DMAX30c368.12$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6737441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked 3DMAX25c358.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9412148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebc…e34bbacked BESTIA57c350.86$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.551618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-63.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed BESTIA37c342.21$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5919448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed 3DMAX21c338.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4738131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed 3DMAX14c329.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8739239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BESTIA43c327.48$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.614,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed BESTIA37c314.68$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6710061%61 W · 39 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked BESTIA28c308.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…999bbacked BESTIA39c306.78$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.316759.7%40 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked 3DMAX46c304.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9160953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62a1…d53ebacked BESTIA35c302.03$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3217930.2%54 W · 125 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 3DMAX30c301.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.672,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed 3DMAX66c296.85$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9252456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed 3DMAX65c291.43$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4322049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked 3DMAX61c283.53$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.561,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed BESTIA34c280$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.818041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed 3DMAX65c275.65$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7228660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed 3DMAX65c274.62$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.537448.4%181 W · 193 L-16.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked BESTIA35c274.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4712746.5%59 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c52…907cbacked 3DMAX12c273.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed 3DMAX65c262.2$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.951,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x186e…3ba3backed BESTIA78c253.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed 3DMAX59c247.84$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3119351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.