TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mentality Monsterof D family, Mentality Monster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe59f…0d08backed D family31c11,086$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.1521155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Mentality Monster48c7,555$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,902.721,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dd7…89aabacked Mentality Monster63c7,276$4,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked D family53c4,000$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.4680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed D family40c1,947$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.5671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked D family44c1,855$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.49242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked D family12c1,540$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.91,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked D family56c1,066$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.2361456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed D family1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster53c984.46$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.052,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Mentality Monster63c972.44$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.381,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed D family54c900$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.517757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Mentality Monster60c776.21$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5656945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Mentality Monster59c700.51$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.1819249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed D family40c652.26$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked D family4c599.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2669033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mentality Monster53c549.55$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.82,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Mentality Monster58c548.04$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8613647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed D family10c520.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Mentality Monster63c503.23$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed D family53c491.99$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2341455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mentality Monster60c414$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5744049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Mentality Monster58c377.3$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3958746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d5…11fcbacked Mentality Monster57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.884568.9%31 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Mentality Monster70c340.11$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5920767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed D family53c319.92$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5625359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x542c…ed1cbacked D family55c310.33$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed D family66c302.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006163.9%39 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed D family51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed D family57c272.38$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616558.2%96 W · 69 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Mentality Monster56c260.56$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.529658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Mentality Monster56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11040442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked D family54c228.94$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6711758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster57c226.42$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.491,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Mentality Monster45c223.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4414763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mentality Monster73c212$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed D family35c210$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed D family43c206.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Mentality Monster52c199.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.931,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Mentality Monster58c182.01$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7622240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Mentality Monster53c170.64$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9462841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe123…b4ffbacked D family50c167.85$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.931637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Mentality Monster61c165.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1620949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked D family39c164.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9853538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Mentality Monster51c152.9$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4558943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed D family51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.53330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-38.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Mentality Monster58c137.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.643452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked D family56c135.2$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3431936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked D family44c134.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.512432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46d5…4bd3backed Mentality Monster62c130$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.922596%24 W · 1 L+5.6wins+0.23per pick73cpaid+30.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Mentality Monster58c125$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.930844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed D family44c122.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2621344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Mentality Monster56c113$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Mentality Monster46c111$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9447358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Mentality Monster64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3626445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Mentality Monster45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5559254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8a…b9f8backed Mentality Monster61c82.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.131060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Mentality Monster62c82.03$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1738759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Mentality Monster53c81.78$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.351,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Mentality Monster47c80.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2530146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…d388backed D family43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.29645.8%44 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…b50bbacked D family35c79.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0472…c3bfbacked D family60c73.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448048.8%39 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Mentality Monster60c73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.247538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed D family25c72.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1115648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Mentality Monster49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.618356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Mentality Monster65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2144149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed D family51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.812452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x330f…91b1backed Mentality Monster55c59.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2713259.1%78 W · 54 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Mentality Monster61c54.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1417443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e60…536bbacked Mentality Monster44c45.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed Mentality Monster62c44.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.017753.2%41 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Mentality Monster61c43.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9915342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Mentality Monster65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1452950.9%269 W · 260 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47a…67fabacked D family59c38.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed D family52c38.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc5…9fcfbacked D family52c37.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.888459.5%50 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3147…2b50backed Mentality Monster51c37.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Mentality Monster64c34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.364548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Mentality Monster63c33.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.427636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked D family59c32.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a48…08c5backed D family40c30.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked D family63c30.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2866947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mentality Monster49c29.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7579…524abacked D family51c28.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.387455.4%41 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…cf1abacked D family52c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5630458.6%178 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Mentality Monster70c23.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1265647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed Mentality Monster56c23.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.214355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Mentality Monster62c20.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.734041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Mentality Monster63c19.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.185149%25 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe34c…ca55backed Mentality Monster76c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.361566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.