TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
D familyof D family, Mentality Monster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked D family57c3,517$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.041,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked D family49c3,312$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.6780256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Mentality Monster50c1,985$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.319242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x590d…28f3backed D family46c1,909$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mentality Monster42c1,762$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Mentality Monster4c1,521$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60375.4%2 W · 35 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed D family54c1,479$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.369455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Mentality Monster53c1,136$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60019547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster43c1,090$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Mentality Monster54c1,024$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.1196645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Mentality Monster54c1,000$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53715050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Mentality Monster1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mentality Monster46c995.08$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.4769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked D family51c936.17$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.2861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed D family49c918.36$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.3617757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Mentality Monster53c802.3$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.8314763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed D family46c651.45$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.1841455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked D family48c576.57$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.582245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d20…a165backed D family40c530$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.49733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Mentality Monster36c511.79$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.289238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed D family40c508$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.915639.1%61 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Mentality Monster60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Mentality Monster59c489.98$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.4413635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Mentality Monster51c478.45$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2448035%28 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Mentality Monster54c465.41$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3314048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Mentality Monster49c463.08$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.831,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Mentality Monster55c437.87$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.0613647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed D family47c425.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5248054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Mentality Monster51c423$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.735747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Mentality Monster54c278.09$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.130146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Mentality Monster55c229.84$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.64553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe37e…6d97backed D family47c217.55$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.426163.9%39 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Mentality Monster40c212.39$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4753538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster50c206.39$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.211,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed D family69c205.75$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7513764.2%88 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Mentality Monster53c203.67$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3619249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed D family50c201.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.139156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed D family43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a6…4fcfbacked Mentality Monster15c199.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed D family51c198.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4625359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Mentality Monster49c197.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1444049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Mentality Monster52c195.45$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Mentality Monster26c192.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504942.9%21 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Mentality Monster58c190$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.233265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Mentality Monster50c186.95$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2417647.2%83 W · 93 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Mentality Monster33c185$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4512432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed D family46c179.35$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.420949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked D family51c176.42$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1411758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed D family51c173.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.034247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Mentality Monster51c165.7$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5147951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed D family52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-38.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Mentality Monster37c146.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.531,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Mentality Monster35c142.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Mentality Monster51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked D family56c136.92$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.041,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked D family69c134.41$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0356945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Mentality Monster50c117.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3734041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked D family74c111.05$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Mentality Monster47c103.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed D family51c102.54$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8438759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe489…8804backed D family50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014349%70 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88fa…b50bbacked Mentality Monster62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Mentality Monster49c99.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Mentality Monster47c98.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.922240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Mentality Monster50c91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.587538.7%29 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Mentality Monster61c89.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.497656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Mentality Monster34c88.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9714848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mentality Monster51c85.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.215642.9%24 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Mentality Monster54c85.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0315342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ccb…6cb3backed Mentality Monster21c84.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.851450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+40.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Mentality Monster52c83.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.730844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2756…e8c7backed D family52c83.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1720661.7%127 W · 79 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed D family50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4028252.1%147 W · 135 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…19f8backed Mentality Monster54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405662.5%35 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Mentality Monster52c73$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9617443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Mentality Monster22c68.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b49…9bdcbacked Mentality Monster28c60.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed D family55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7718356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed D family51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2558943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a3…5b70backed Mentality Monster54c55.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x46d5…4bd3backed D family77c52.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.032596%24 W · 1 L+5.6wins+0.23per pick73cpaid+30.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Mentality Monster56c51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.554548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Mentality Monster54c49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3464547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Mentality Monster56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1516456.7%93 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dba…6929backed Mentality Monster55c43.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.126341.3%26 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mentality Monster37c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1001…0cf1backed D family42c37.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed Mentality Monster56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Mentality Monster49c33.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.368345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed D family63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7512452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed D family51c31.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3739042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a8…0f9cbacked D family49c30.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb4d…d388backed D family46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.19645.8%44 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe717…0710backed D family52c28.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6421158.8%124 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Mentality Monster39c27.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.863286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0xb603…c701backed D family50c27.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.822152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Mentality Monster49c25.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6865647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Mentality Monster54c25.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.555474.1%40 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked D family41c24.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.514860.4%29 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked D family50c23.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5630054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.