South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaabd3c109f6d3bee9d50a175d8ece902be3d018c0d288d72faac984b2d3c75b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA River Plateof CA River Plate, AA Argentinos Juniors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed CA River Plate | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.9 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 78c | 2,115$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.23 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed CA River Plate | 20c | 1,656$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.28 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed CA River Plate | 24c | 1,534$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.74 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 3c | 1,047$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 79c | 859.07$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked CA River Plate | 17c | 718.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.27 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed CA River Plate | 24c | 657.89$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 600$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 483.1$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed CA River Plate | 24c | 178.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 69c | 102.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 85.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked CA River Plate | 23c | 82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 80c | 66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 78c | 48.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CA River Plate | 23c | 45.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked CA River Plate | 33c | 43.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 79c | 41.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 78cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed CA River Plate | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 78cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 24.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 79c | 18.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 77c | 15.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: AA Argentinos Juniors O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: CA River Plate O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: CA River Plate O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.