South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67f771576716167185d6b64ed39951c7eaee4d2417438a9179346c87f5627cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 38c | 6,936$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 6,748$4,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.11 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 59c | 6,442$3,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.22 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 6,095$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.01 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 4,133$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.01 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 64c | 2,174$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.55 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 35c | 1,858$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.84 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…b017backed Over | 32c | 1,376$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 58c | 879.4$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…6748backed Over | 33c | 825.38$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 773.51$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.13 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 34c | 766.14$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.73 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 69c | 609$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 579$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.81 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Under | 59c | 555$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 6c | 531.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 53c | 530.26$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.32 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 62c | 518.74$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.05 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 57c | 509.36$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.17 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…340bbacked Over | 22c | 499.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7833backed Over | 30c | 477.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 408.73$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.18 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 67c | 400$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 62c | 322.01$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 43c | 319.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 43c | 304$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 38c | 239.06$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 673 | 37.1%250 W · 423 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 9c | 202.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 71c | 165.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 32c | 159.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 74c | 153.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 140.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 139.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 90.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 38c | 85.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 71c | 84.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 416 | 62%258 W · 158 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 73c | 83.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Under | 63c | 76.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 33c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 75c | 61.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 61c | 48.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 43c | 47.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 41c | 42.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 73c | 41.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 76c | 41.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 72c | 40.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 77c | 38.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 37.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 45c | 35.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 39c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 64c | 34.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 45c | 34.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked Over | 41c | 34.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 38c | 33.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,442 | 37.6%542 W · 900 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 68c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 126 | 62.7%79 W · 47 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under | 64c | 28.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 38c | 27.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 69c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…24b1backed Under | 63c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…b93bbacked Under | 65c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 722 | 58.6%423 W · 299 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 76c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 65c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: AA Argentinos Juniors O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: CA River Plate O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: CA River Plate O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.