Tennis · resolved market
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb621f83dc33376f4982be82456db3ae3a8faab8d5249a22c54a5b14b7f85d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sebastian Ofnerof Sebastian Ofner, Raul Brancaccio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sebastian Ofner | 65c | 2,445$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.59 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Raul Brancaccio | 29c | 2,064$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.24 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Raul Brancaccio | 31c | 1,894$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.65 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Raul Brancaccio | 13c | 1,701$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.65 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Raul Brancaccio | 45c | 1,006$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Sebastian Ofner | 66c | 997.34$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.46 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Raul Brancaccio | 28c | 900.12$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.73 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sebastian Ofner | 75c | 609.76$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Sebastian Ofner | 72c | 546$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Sebastian Ofner | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Raul Brancaccio | 34c | 367.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Sebastian Ofner | 74c | 364.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Sebastian Ofner | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Sebastian Ofner | 68c | 299.1$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Raul Brancaccio | 22c | 271.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Sebastian Ofner | 75c | 266.66$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Sebastian Ofner | 71c | 258$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Sebastian Ofner | 61c | 201.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Raul Brancaccio | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed Sebastian Ofner | 67c | 183.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 180.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 180.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 173$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Raul Brancaccio | 14c | 171$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Raul Brancaccio | 27c | 149.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Raul Brancaccio | 28c | 149.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sebastian Ofner | 76c | 147.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Raul Brancaccio | 32c | 139.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Raul Brancaccio | 25c | 135.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Sebastian Ofner | 64c | 130$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Sebastian Ofner | 64c | 116$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Sebastian Ofner | 72c | 115.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Raul Brancaccio | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Sebastian Ofner | 74c | 109.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Raul Brancaccio | 44c | 106.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Sebastian Ofner | 66c | 105.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Raul Brancaccio | 24c | 85.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 82.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Raul Brancaccio | 14c | 82.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Raul Brancaccio | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Raul Brancaccio | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Sebastian Ofner | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 457 | 44.2%202 W · 255 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 55.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Sebastian Ofner | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 47.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0436…078ebacked Raul Brancaccio | 31c | 45.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Sebastian Ofner | 73c | 40.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sebastian Ofner | 71c | 40.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Raul Brancaccio | 33c | 38.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…17c5backed Sebastian Ofner | 77c | 36.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Sebastian Ofner | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e8…c85fbacked Raul Brancaccio | 35c | 32.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Sebastian Ofner | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Sebastian Ofner | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Sebastian Ofner | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 437 | 50.3%220 W · 217 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Sebastian Ofner | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…eff7backed Sebastian Ofner | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Sebastian Ofner | 70c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Sebastian Ofner | 64c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Sebastian Ofner | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…f7eebacked Sebastian Ofner | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Sebastian Ofner | 71c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Sebastian Ofner | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Sebastian Ofner | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.