TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c2,000$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.384,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes33c1,289$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.121,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No65c775$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.7556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes37c548.16$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.283,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c513.72$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c477.87$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c450.23$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.618,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes70c435.07$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.513930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes20c403.2$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.6465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c397.59$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.746,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No45c393.38$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.592,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c378.7$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.524,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c362.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c349.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.393,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No49c326.7$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.62,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes43c285.9$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.116437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes67c269.7$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8915570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No61c264.1$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.011,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes42c262.78$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes20c259.96$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No66c256.16$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8715553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes33c245.69$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.699832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c240.32$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.393,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…24cabacked No71c225.77$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes34c217.55$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.535349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c213.47$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.375,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c202$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.485,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c201$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.454,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c200.58$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.844,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No66c199.67$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5324546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes45c198.96$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6186952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No62c198.62$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.762857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes48c196$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c193.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.875,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c178.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.57,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes20c165.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.872846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7137…0c12backed Yes42c152.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.897417.6%13 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes33c152.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2845238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No70c151.27$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3221264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes32c144.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8327246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes37c143.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.071,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes12c143.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.973020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No68c138.56$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.982,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…2305backed Yes20c138$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.47213.9%10 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c135.23$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.053,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes27c132$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes26c126.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.983218.8%6 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No65c124$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.82,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes33c120.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes33c120.74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.553,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes47c119.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8922645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed Yes17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6515555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No51c112.17$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed No59c110.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd13…94e5backed No66c109.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.151414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes36c109$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes15c109$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.279635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes25c107.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2731836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No66c106.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.562,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No45c105.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3316847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes28c104.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c103.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.053,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes19c102.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6226540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes12c99.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…9300backed Yes45c93.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes25c92.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.54,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes30c91.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes24c91.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.611,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No69c88.61$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.861,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes27c85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4510345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes34c84.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.814,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes36c83.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.471,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No39c81.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9918142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c80.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.782,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked Yes18c79.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.957251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes48c78.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.063647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes69c72.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.634367.4%29 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c69.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.981,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c66.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes35c65.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.766648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d90…2512backed No77c65.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes61c65.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.158942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.263,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes38c63.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.211,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c62.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.332,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c62.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes53c61.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8828441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c60.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes64c60.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.656048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd2…bce9backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes44c59.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4144536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes43c59.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8316437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes17c59$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.972920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No65c58.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes35c57.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6317644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes59c57.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes45c56.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.014242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.