TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes0c7,503$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.151936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6833…2011backed Yes0c2,730$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes48c1,100$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7716724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No58c977.32$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.682,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No36c582.62$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.1534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c582.19$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No27c570.7$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.71,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes59c566.57$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.258942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c518.11$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.446,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes43c447.3$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c423.01$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.85,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No22c411.05$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.41,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x195e…9300backed Yes45c402.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.29837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes28c395.07$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c360$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.025,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes35c351.41$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5619737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes33c351.16$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.852,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No79c333.65$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.653560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c328.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.394,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No55c307.96$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8232440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes16c299.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4915717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes70c299.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.999756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No29c285.65$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.814,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e2…aab7backed Yes61c283$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1741723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes37c268.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c266.92$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed Yes52c261.37$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.137143.7%31 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes32c259.52$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c255.08$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.224,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c246.68$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.791,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes47c223.08$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.695349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes36c214.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes65c210$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7112927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes45c203.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.932646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No53c187.31$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c180$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.72,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No58c177.73$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes22c150.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.422,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes64c150$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes58c145.51$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.075042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c145$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.565,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No24c138.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.921,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No56c138.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.182,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51a…3a29backed Yes23c137.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c136.47$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.153,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Yes74c135.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002254.5%12 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes37c134.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes16c134.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.661,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes42c132.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1629345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849a…750abacked Yes38c132.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd998…918bbacked Yes20c127.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes18c119.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.620327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes45c116.06$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.264362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9a6…6216backed Yes43c116$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.883135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes35c115.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No68c111.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8360054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes10c111.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5815630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes42c104.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9880130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No63c104.04$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.541,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No30c103.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2913363.9%85 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes72c101.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.23930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes41c100.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3726540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4523731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes33c98.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6548523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c98.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No59c98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c94.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.023,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed No31c92.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.986439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes42c90.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3842148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa4…50bebacked Yes75c90.61$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No56c88.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.761,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No52c87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.627461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7137…0c12backed Yes23c86.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.457417.6%13 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.933561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes40c82.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes55c82.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4534151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No25c82.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No56c82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.782,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.33630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes46c79.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.711241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No20c78.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6337355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes45c77.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No57c77.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.824546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2774…24f0backed Yes43c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c74.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.774,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No43c74.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5483459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.464,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No58c69.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.391,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c71…9338backed Yes42c69.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No52c69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1213444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d8b…e621backed Yes29c68.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c67.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.743,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeae…1218backed Yes37c67.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c66.19$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.653,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4343…8deabacked Yes76c66.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507661.8%47 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef8…21e5backed Yes40c62.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2322744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.