Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a7e5f5fb3268413bb4ac90468f5dbe560668bf4098f502d46d6b20d75e3116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,503$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 0c | 2,730$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 48c | 1,100$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.77 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 977.32$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 36c | 582.62$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.15 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 582.19$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 27c | 570.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.7 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 59c | 566.57$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.25 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 518.11$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 447.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 423.01$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 22c | 411.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.4 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…9300backed Yes | 45c | 402.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 28c | 395.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 360$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 35c | 351.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 351.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 79c | 333.65$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 328.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 55c | 307.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 29c | 285.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 61c | 283$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 37c | 268.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 266.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 52c | 261.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 32c | 259.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 255.08$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 246.68$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 47c | 223.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 36c | 214.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 65c | 210$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 45c | 203.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 187.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 180$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 58c | 177.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 150.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 64c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 58c | 145.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 145$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 24c | 138.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 138.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…3a29backed Yes | 23c | 137.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 136.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 74c | 135.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 37c | 134.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 134.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 42c | 132.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…750abacked Yes | 38c | 132.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 20c | 127.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 45c | 116.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 35c | 115.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 111.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 10c | 111.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 104.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 104.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 30c | 103.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 72c | 101.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 100.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 98.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 98.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 94.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed No | 31c | 92.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 90.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa4…50bebacked Yes | 75c | 90.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 88.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 23c | 86.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 40c | 82.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 55c | 82.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 25c | 82.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes | 46c | 79.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 20c | 78.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 45c | 77.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 57c | 77.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…24f0backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 74.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 74.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 58c | 69.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 42c | 69.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8b…e621backed Yes | 29c | 68.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 67.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 37c | 67.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 66.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 76c | 66.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…21e5backed Yes | 40c | 62.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.