Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaae63b6df8f86b7cbd2695397d190cbcd8ca63409b9cbb1da8f0a7abbcc662c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 33c | 853.42$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…9300backed Yes | 16c | 607.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 509.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 15c | 408.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 393.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 4c | 371.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 14c | 356.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 259.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 225.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 68c | 205.41$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 176.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 167.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 18c | 162.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 12c | 150.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 14c | 145.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 145$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 10c | 144.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 143.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 141.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 15c | 127.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 10c | 114.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 113.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 15c | 107.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 107.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 13c | 107.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 98.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 94.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3615…1577backed Yes | 15c | 93.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 18c | 86.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 82.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 73.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 71.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 69.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 61.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 58.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 45.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 44.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 38.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 33.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 68c | 33.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 69c | 28.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 27.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 69c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.