MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb9954b5ec6ce1e7f26307bd8e580a2edc9fa01d11db7d636254725000be6be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Miami Marlins | 3c | 2,799$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 1,896$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 1,504$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Miami Marlins | 3c | 1,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Miami Marlins | 3c | 1,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked Miami Marlins | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…322bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 1,364$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.55 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…cdafbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 3c | 590.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Miami Marlins | 5c | 511.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 437.9$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 406$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 388.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 384.2$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.01 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 357$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 287.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 272.81$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Miami Marlins | 14c | 147.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Miami Marlins | 14c | 145.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…1edbbacked Miami Marlins | 17c | 125.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Miami Marlins | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 123.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 120.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 114.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 100.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 92.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 63.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 63.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…81bebacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 46.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 34.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 27.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 23.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 19.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…3bb8backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 1.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.