NFL · resolved market
Spread: DEN (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbade2c09879cb959da6c233bf945380872f7f02d642c34431e644b65317fd00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DENof DEN, ATL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x776f…32b7backed DEN | 59c | 388.08$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked ATL | 62c | 271.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed DEN | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed ATL | 63c | 175$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed DEN | 37c | 109.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked ATL | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed ATL | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked ATL | 41c | 92.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ATL | 40c | 66.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…ef8bbacked DEN | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed DEN | 38c | 28.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DEN (-6.5)this page
- Broncos vs. FalconsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 36.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 37.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: DEN (-3.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-4.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-5.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.