NFL · resolved market
Spread: DEN (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa850249a51037fd201262761a1cd43a23cb82c8b9b0d6b0b8584cfc243288f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DENof DEN, ATL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked ATL | 55c | 11,835$6,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,502.4 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed DEN | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed DEN | 51c | 7,500$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed ATL | 49c | 5,565$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.67 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed ATL | 50c | 4,955$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.42 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed DEN | 49c | 2,210$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.36 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed DEN | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked DEN | 49c | 999.97$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.99 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked ATL | 51c | 968$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.68 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed ATL | 52c | 605.11$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed DEN | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed DEN | 45c | 585$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed DEN | 47c | 564.23$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.59 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked DEN | 49c | 512$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed DEN | 51c | 480.39$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked ATL | 55c | 464.17$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed DEN | 48c | 305$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed DEN | 46c | 255.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed DEN | 52c | 231.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked DEN | 66c | 204$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed ATL | 45c | 176.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked DEN | 52c | 115.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked DEN | 52c | 107.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed ATL | 49c | 102.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed ATL | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed DEN | 45c | 60.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed DEN | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked DEN | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed ATL | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed ATL | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed DEN | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed ATL | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed DEN | 50c | 33.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed ATL | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked DEN | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…f749backed DEN | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed DEN | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed ATL | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed DEN | 45c | 25.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed DEN | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed DEN | 55c | 18.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DEN (-3.5)this page
- Broncos vs. FalconsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 36.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 37.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: DEN (-4.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-5.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-6.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.