NFL · resolved market
DEN vs. ATL: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f12d39dbf7a12430b3dd01b9ae2d15ff534be2e3d62efcb4756bae31d5b4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 1,358$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.03 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…acbbbacked Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 65c | 584.99$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 63c | 501.85$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Under | 55c | 499.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 43c | 448$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 197.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 45c | 196.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 60c | 149.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 60c | 121.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 43c | 101.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 55c | 95.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 55c | 78.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 44c | 76.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 43c | 63.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 69c | 43.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 37.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 55c | 30.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 55c | 18.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 37.5this page
- Broncos vs. FalconsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 36.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: DEN (-3.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-4.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-5.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-6.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.