NFL · resolved market
DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d312393007e870d2dade8572beb140dfe18e02ce17f6289323ae3de7992a8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 111,110$51,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,332.7 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 53c | 67,937$36,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,006.65 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 54c | 38,220$20,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,638.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 2,861$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.93 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,924$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.72 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 1,829$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.66 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,797$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.2 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 52c | 1,766$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Over | 54c | 1,140$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…5fdebacked Over | 58c | 432.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…1bd3backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 318.27$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 253.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 45c | 200.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 54c | 162$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 158$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…275bbacked Over | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 57c | 140.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 42c | 137$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 57c | 104.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 48c | 104.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 54c | 103.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f48…a145backed Over | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 83.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 81.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 44c | 80.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 52c | 78.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 53c | 73.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 52c | 67.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243d…c2ecbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Under | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 44.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 53c | 43.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Under | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 53c | 41.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Over | 52c | 41.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Over | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Under | 62c | 35.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5this page
- Broncos vs. FalconsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 36.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 37.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: DEN (-3.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-4.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-5.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-6.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.