NFL · resolved market
DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb50f787ec5c702b8f0882183d89aa16b11fa4cc1c86c678124f40b85f858bb6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 75,152$39,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,072.85 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 48c | 66,374$31,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,859.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 5,179$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.36 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 922.85$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.97 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Under | 55c | 750$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 428$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed Over | 49c | 292.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 269.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 46c | 257.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.63 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 257.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 48c | 255$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 252.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 45c | 167.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 41c | 142.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 54c | 120.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 108.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 48c | 95.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 48c | 67.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 48c | 67.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 42c | 65.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Over | 52c | 56.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 47c | 41.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…74eebacked Over | 48c | 36.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 49c | 35.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 48c | 23.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 40.5this page
- Broncos vs. FalconsBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Falcons: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 36.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 37.5Under won
- DEN vs. ATL: O/U 38.5Under won
- Spread: DEN (-3.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-4.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-5.5)DEN won
- Spread: DEN (-6.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.