Dota2 · resolved market
PARIVISION vs Team Spirit: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbcfda956892505f96e2eddbdfa4b5b6d9936eed922fa7fe41028b82d562f9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 71c | 749.97$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 31c | 533.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…737abacked Yes | 46c | 439.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 58c | 396$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 38c | 325.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 50c | 304.47$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.16 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 55c | 289.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 283.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 54c | 254.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 232.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…0effbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 52c | 198.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed No | 25c | 178$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 34c | 155.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 37c | 139.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 26c | 137.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Yes | 68c | 102.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 101.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 95.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 71c | 65.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…04eebacked Yes | 45c | 44.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4c26backed Yes | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 36.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed No | 57c | 35.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 42c | 34.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…3101backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…878ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 55c | 20.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 20.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 58c | 17.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PARIVISION vs Team Spirit: Draw (1-1)?this page
- PARIVISION to win 2-0?No won
- Team Spirit to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.