Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc7a698c412898bbd1a6ddabf1fc378c36c24d78b2160182a639634fc829162d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 49c | 2,557$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.52 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 1,063$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.32 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 51c | 982.7$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 721.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 51c | 368.18$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 247.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 232.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 212.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 64c | 212.02$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 210.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 180.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 152.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 50c | 146.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 138.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 130.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 122.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 109.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 48c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 88.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 61c | 87.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 40c | 83.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 66c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 60.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 41c | 55.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 25c | 52.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 52.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 51.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 31c | 50.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 48.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 47.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 61c | 42.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed No | 50c | 33.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 32.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 71c | 31.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…4353backed No | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4a91backed No | 49c | 27.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…bd45backed No | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 59c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…28b5backed No | 68c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.