Movies · resolved market
Will "Shelter" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9e9b9f413a19d9ba5661b7707195391976028c50a4bdf2eb41d5d31653b15b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 79c | 3,849$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.32 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 19c | 2,380$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.95 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 10c | 1,873$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0e…46e7backed Yes | 76c | 1,089$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 740.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 80c | 710$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 23c | 688.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 38c | 630$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.7 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 8c | 416.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 399.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 383.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 360.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 314.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 12c | 296.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 65c | 253.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 17c | 223.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…b12abacked No | 22c | 212.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 21c | 184.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 76c | 180.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 18c | 173.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 33c | 113.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 25c | 102.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 15c | 93.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ba…9ed8backed Yes | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Shelter" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?this page
- Will "Shelter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "Shelter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?No won
- Will "Shelter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.