Serie A · resolved market

Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf8669d644749f51d7ee3f4b412e40ddfa9f019e5e2c7118cca947d26a85986

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,261 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	38c	8,886$3,338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,548.12	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under	61c	5,000$3,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,049.76	210	58.6%123 W · 87 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over	37c	2,163$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,362.57	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	64c	2,033$1,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,303.21	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under	65c	1,538$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	87	57.5%50 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Under	66c	1,515$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	34c	1,025$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673.22	592	40.7%241 W · 351 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	38c	773.87$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.8	205	44.9%92 W · 113 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over	36c	694.44$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.44	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over	39c	611.39$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.71	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e1…e25abacked Under	62c	605.65$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	42c	604.99$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.3	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+6.1wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	39c	501.17$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.71	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Under	63c	476.19$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	222	37.4%83 W · 139 L	-7.2wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	43c	466.09$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.67	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	40c	452.56$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.69	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	62c	443.98$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.27	99	58.6%58 W · 41 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…2874backed Under	59c	423.73$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Under	61c	400$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Under	66c	377.35$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	30c	333.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.33	131	42%55 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40f…1950backed Under	63c	317.46$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over	36c	277.78$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.78	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-6.3wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Under	65c	216$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.4	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed Under	10c	207.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+66.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	63c	200$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	255	56.5%144 W · 111 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	63c	200$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	64c	195$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.39	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under	58c	192$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.36	284	45.4%129 W · 155 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	63c	160$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	63c	160$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Under	65c	125$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.25	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	63c	120$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under	63c	120$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	136	48.5%66 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	63c	120$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	284	58.1%165 W · 119 L	+12.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	58c	119.37$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.23	149	36.2%54 W · 95 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Under	64c	111.82$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	49c	95.92$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.92	156	48.7%76 W · 80 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	41c	86.24$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.66	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Over	40c	83.33$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	124	53.2%66 W · 58 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	89	48.3%43 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under	63c	80$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed Under	64c	78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.7wins	-0.29per pick	52cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Under	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Under	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-4.9wins	-0.20per pick	56cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed Under	58c	65$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.7	100	39%39 W · 61 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under	62c	63.33$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	60c	60$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	37c	50.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.76	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Over	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+6.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Under	64c	46$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	163	40.5%66 W · 97 L	-14.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-5.9wins	-0.26per pick	52cpaid	-45%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	92	52.2%48 W · 44 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	127	54.3%69 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	116	55.2%64 W · 52 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Under	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Under	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Under	58c	32.58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over	37c	31$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.62	89	52.8%47 W · 42 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1293…9587backed Under	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	43cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Under	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	368	52.7%194 W · 174 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over	37c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	112	55.4%62 W · 50 L	+15.5wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbc69…78b3backed Under	64c	29.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	56c	28.31$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Over	36c	28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	171	42.7%73 W · 98 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5this page
Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5Over won
Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5Over won
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Pisa SC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event