Serie A · resolved market

Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ac83860220b9df362125c7bb560e60f9b76b8f64c60afbf226f42542aae1445

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,281 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7a5f…4b52backed Over	67c	2,985$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$985.07	20	90%18 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	77cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	68c	2,524$1,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$814.72	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	37c	1,790$659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.59	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under	36c	1,500$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Over	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Under	23c	974.23$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.05	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Under	36c	938.88$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed Under	7c	337.69$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+66.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over	68c	277.28$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.28	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	25c	271.55$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.07	149	36.2%54 W · 95 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	36c	212$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.49	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	22c	208.14$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.79	310	51.6%160 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over	67c	200$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	314	41.4%130 W · 184 L	-11.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e1…5924backed Under	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over	63c	200$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	35c	200$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	184	59.2%109 W · 75 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	35c	199.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.99	255	56.5%144 W · 111 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	64c	198.08$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.31	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked Over	76c	184.42$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.92	30	80%24 W · 6 L	+6.1wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb17…94e8backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	76c	171.02$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.04	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	35c	160$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	35c	160$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	168	51.2%86 W · 82 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	35c	120$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	158	47.5%75 W · 83 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	35c	120$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	284	58.1%165 W · 119 L	+12.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Under	37c	114$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	64c	104.08$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.47	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Under	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	59c	84.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	156	48.7%76 W · 80 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	111	54.1%60 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	124	53.2%66 W · 58 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	114	54.4%62 W · 52 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	102	52%53 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	119	53.8%64 W · 55 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	154	59.1%91 W · 63 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under	35c	80$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	33c	72.4$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Under	37c	57$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Under	22c	55.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Under	22c	54.79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf57a…a337backed Over	63c	49$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.13	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Over	63c	48$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.76	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…0ea4backed Under	34c	44.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-6.2wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-5.9wins	-0.26per pick	52cpaid	-45%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	92	52.2%48 W · 44 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	127	54.3%69 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	72c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.35	88	63.6%56 W · 32 L	+16.1wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	116	55.2%64 W · 52 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	136	50.7%69 W · 67 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	123	50.4%62 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Under	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d2…bc89backed Over	64c	39.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Over	66c	39$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.26	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	65c	38.54$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.54	70	58.6%41 W · 29 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	67cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over	63c	37$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.69	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb665…95a8backed Over	63c	33$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.21	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	59cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e26…c672backed Over	63c	32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.84	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e5…260cbacked Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.91	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de8…f53bbacked Under	36c	31.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	368	52.7%194 W · 174 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8144…eff8backed Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a2…a2d1backed Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9428…4d5bbacked Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+59.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x069b…095dbacked Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+59.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf564…38a3backed Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+59.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa31b…a3edbacked Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42a3…fef9backed Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3527…71a6backed Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26f9…b8b1backed Under	36c	29.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over	66c	26$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.84	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Over	63c	26$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over	79c	21.2$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe2f…a4cebacked Over	67c	17.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.78	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5this page
Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Over won
Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5Over won
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)Pisa SC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cagliari Calcio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event