NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd254f914b4c832dfb84ef76721714d46b9376f4c2726fe8c31aafe90b99bdec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Pelicans, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 33c | 698.64$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.41 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e44…686abacked Timberwolves | 66c | 613.1$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Timberwolves | 65c | 146.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Timberwolves | 66c | 131.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Pelicans | 37c | 128.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Pelicans | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…d1d7backed Pelicans | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Pelicans | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Timberwolves | 76c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Timberwolves | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…d234backed Pelicans | 39c | 29.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c0…6c89backed Timberwolves | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…db85backed Timberwolves | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Timberwolves | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Timberwolves | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…8e32backed Timberwolves | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…1482backed Timberwolves | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf22…531bbacked Timberwolves | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…c1f6backed Timberwolves | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Timberwolves | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Timberwolves | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…d748backed Timberwolves | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f94…c756backed Timberwolves | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Timberwolves | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Timberwolves | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…3fb0backed Timberwolves | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…ab1cbacked Timberwolves | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Timberwolves | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…69fbbacked Timberwolves | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…9683backed Timberwolves | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. TimberwolvesPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.