NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x106e747df8ee37bf6c6acfce63b79996dab152cb161f74dd611119f605fe5d0a

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pelicansof Timberwolves, Pelicans
Resolved: Feb 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xea2b…1fc6backed Pelicans	53c	12,447$6,548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,899.25	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Pelicans	55c	6,916$3,804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,111.85	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves	45c	6,450$2,902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,902.5	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves	47c	5,683$2,684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,684.12	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Timberwolves	47c	3,633$1,708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,707.51	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans	53c	3,175$1,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,505.08	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Timberwolves	48c	2,150$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032	171	62.6%107 W · 64 L	+10.1wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Timberwolves	47c	2,128$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	244	50%122 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Timberwolves	47c	2,116$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$994.75	714	49.3%352 W · 362 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Timberwolves	47c	1,930$907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$907	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves	46c	1,763$818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.34	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Pelicans	52c	1,500$785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Timberwolves	48c	1,447$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.42	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Pelicans	58c	1,177$677 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.9	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves	37c	980.94$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.59	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans	69c	897.55$619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.24	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans	53c	548.97$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.02	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans	53c	496.18$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.21	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Timberwolves	47c	425.53$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Timberwolves	4c	401.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Pelicans	54c	400$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans	56c	392.79$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.62	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Pelicans	59c	381.36$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.36	265	53.2%141 W · 124 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Pelicans	55c	291.56$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.56	217	43.8%95 W · 122 L	-9.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves	43c	279.06$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Timberwolves	46c	240.88$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.01	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6746…70e1backed Timberwolves	44c	228.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.97	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-5.2wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked Timberwolves	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Timberwolves	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Timberwolves	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Timberwolves	47c	212.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Timberwolves	52c	211.54$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	160	30.6%49 W · 111 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Pelicans	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Pelicans	54c	199.98$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.99	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Pelicans	57c	194.74$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.74	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Pelicans	54c	185.59$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.59	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Pelicans	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Pelicans	56c	159.28$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.08	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Pelicans	57c	154.68$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.51	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves	47c	131$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.57	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Pelicans	56c	126.6$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.6	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked Timberwolves	32c	124.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Pelicans	50c	120$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	242	50.8%123 W · 119 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Timberwolves	48c	112.5$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Pelicans	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	184	56%103 W · 81 L	+16.3wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves	47c	98.59$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.34	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Pelicans	55c	91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.95	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Timberwolves	53c	74$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8c…2157backed Timberwolves	45c	68.49$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Pelicans	49c	63.85$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.37	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Pelicans	55c	61.82$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.82	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Pelicans	50c	61$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.5	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Timberwolves	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x150c…718fbacked Timberwolves	43c	54.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Pelicans	54c	52.63$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.21	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Pelicans	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	332	49.7%165 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Timberwolves	46c	51.63$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	177	50.8%90 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Pelicans	56c	51.58$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.57	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves	48c	50.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Pelicans	57c	48.87$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.01	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Pelicans	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	293	48.5%142 W · 151 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…2985backed Timberwolves	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Timberwolves	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	180	31.7%57 W · 123 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Pelicans	55c	28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Timberwolves	49c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	219	37%81 W · 138 L	-15.9wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Pelicans	52c	27.01$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Pelicans	55c	25.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b37…d7e9backed Pelicans	55c	25.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	119	38.7%46 W · 73 L	-10.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pelicans	55c	25.16$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Pelicans	57c	25.12$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fb…974abacked Pelicans	49c	24.49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.49	50	48%24 W · 26 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Timberwolves	48c	24.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Pelicans	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Pelicans	58c	19.72$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d3…3667backed Pelicans	57c	19.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.3	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2239…598ebacked Pelicans	58c	17.96$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.61	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1051…c118backed Pelicans	57c	17.56$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Pelicans	58c	17.55$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.37	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)this page
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Pelicans vs. TimberwolvesPelicans won
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Under won
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Under won
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Pelicans won
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Pelicans won
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Pelicans won
Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 22.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event