TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,966 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No1c1,259$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.594,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes38c1,156$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.1642036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No51c478.12$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.142,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c435.13$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c374.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes47c347.61$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.834332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c320.74$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.844,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No35c316.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8252322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes49c306.6$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18357150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15026744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c246$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.524,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2946733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes47c183.01$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5226533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No62c164$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.683,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No48c157.67$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.672,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes46c156.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.791,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No53c135.78$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c131.11$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.464,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No65c125.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9352758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No56c118.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.684,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No53c112.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No51c109.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.632,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3820452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.154,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes48c83.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes65c76.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c69.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.646,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes44c67.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6154335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebb…9922backed Yes74c64.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.932250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c61.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f7…e6c9backed Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.761163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No40c46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.282,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No38c45.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.463,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c45.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.753,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No56c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6592761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes46c43.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.432,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes47c42.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.195,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No53c41.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.791,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes49c41.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.021,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No54c40.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.21,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes49c39.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9734151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No62c37.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.531,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c9…9383backed No54c30.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.231668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.619259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69158.2%53 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd62b…ceecbacked No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-46.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62568%17 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No41c29.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.276059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes45c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes44c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.122,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No52c26.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.621,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.067057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No52c25.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0354867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.952356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2362…2ec5backed No56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.993743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.251,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No53c24.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.731,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x367f…ee28backed No54c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.423148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes45c22.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.343559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9e4…51bdbacked Yes52c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes47c21.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2833550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No62c20.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No51c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3949359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d17…32d8backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3213655.1%75 W · 61 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.431766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1155261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.215246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca01…36d7backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5c…767bbacked No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45756.1%32 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-18.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.215545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.215345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes52c19.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.514245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.