Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe38fee63ee1e308210211f2862077e17e582b23ba249fd61eb0f302068654eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 28c | 949.72$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.77 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 461.47$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 456.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 345.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 37c | 331.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 25c | 198.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 193.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 164.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 153.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 10c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 147.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 22c | 141.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 137.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 128.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 125.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 117.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 94.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 34c | 85.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 66c | 76.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 45.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 35.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 66c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…b953backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 66c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.