Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd73cf61c157c3d9645935800568fafc6e5ec5fe456665dd7bd2a32c7fe39fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 1,269$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 15c | 759.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 695.67$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 690.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 2c | 630$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 16c | 613.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 59c | 573.75$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 27c | 548.82$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.12 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 36c | 540.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 527.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 20c | 457.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 27c | 415$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.85 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 42c | 372.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 39c | 216$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 212.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 208$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 204.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 33c | 195.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 72c | 195.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 78c | 193.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 188.47$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 8c | 169.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 22c | 168.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 166.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 162.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 36c | 146$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 145.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 143.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 56c | 140.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 134.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 129.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 43c | 117.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 38c | 113.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 112.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 63c | 111.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 98.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 37c | 97.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 36c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 38c | 94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 61c | 89.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 63c | 89.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 79.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 13c | 79.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 65c | 78.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 68c | 77.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 35c | 76.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 47c | 76.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 68c | 73.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed Yes | 77c | 71.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 69.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 67.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 66.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 28c | 61.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 65c | 61.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 60.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 33c | 60.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 58.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 41c | 58.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 77c | 52.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 52.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 55c | 49.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 66c | 45.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 65c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 43.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 62c | 40.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 37c | 40.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 39.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 38.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 37.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 44c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 66c | 34.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 33.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 33.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…c781backed Yes | 69c | 33.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 30.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 80c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 39c | 25.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 25.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 37°C or higher on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.