Weather · resolved market
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 100 mph?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7f63491518eb15a203195dac4fb8c31e8580388ecc4adf4b3868a8bc08a893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 69c | 4,912$3,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 18c | 1,575$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked No | 22c | 1,351$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 22c | 1,351$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,007$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 801.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 4c | 656.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 203.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 185.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 172$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed No | 63c | 134.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…fd3abacked Yes | 31c | 128.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…1b63backed Yes | 69c | 122.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…841dbacked Yes | 18c | 72.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 61c | 67.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked No | 77c | 20.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 20.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 100 mph?this page
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 105 mph?No won
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 110 mph?No won
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 115 mph?No won
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 85 mph?Yes won
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 90 mph?Yes won
- Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.