Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdfa949e26fda7ac3f87ab4f854b0d768dc30a169e7ed6e7d22f7445c36c1b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 1,553$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 541.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.64 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 16c | 528.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.52 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 500.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 443.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 404.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 5c | 393.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 327.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.62 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 303.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 275.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 34c | 256.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 231.37$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 215.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 207.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.86 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 196.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 184.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 22c | 181.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 180.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 176.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 13c | 168.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 148.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 145.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 69c | 119.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 112.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 111.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 109.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 13c | 105.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 100.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 100.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 20c | 97.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 17c | 83.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 76.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 50c | 75.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 34c | 67.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 21c | 58.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 70c | 55.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 29c | 54.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 52.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 51.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 50.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 49.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 43.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 40.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 37.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 33c | 30.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 34c | 29.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 24.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 21.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 20.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 68c | 17.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.