Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b619e8bb1e3027802acd46e4dd04913dfe7af289f3da0c12607ad4b5cb2234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,723$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 66c | 2,224$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.34 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 1,294$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 6c | 976.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.65 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 41c | 731.44$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.96 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 540.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 534.72$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 465.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 443.9$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 27c | 415.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 58c | 376.26$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 316.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 267$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 248.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 236.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 233.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 39c | 213.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 213.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 201.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 50c | 194.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 186.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 181.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 57c | 178.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 157.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 56c | 148.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 133.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 14c | 132.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed No | 39c | 132.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 40c | 123.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 123.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 113.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 113$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 104.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 103.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 100.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…c617backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 59c | 99.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 77.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 57c | 69.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 41c | 63.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 63.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 65c | 61.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 39c | 60.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 63c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 29c | 50.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 35c | 48.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 48.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 34c | 48.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 46.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 44.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 63c | 43.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes | 60c | 43.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 41c | 40.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 40.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 39.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 43c | 38.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 37.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 50c | 36.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 35.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked No | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 64c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…da2bbacked No | 50c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 64c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.