TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes22c2,723$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.492,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No66c2,224$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3416295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c1,294$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed No6c976.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.6538515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No41c731.44$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.9637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c540.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes67c534.72$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.654,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c465.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c443.9$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.825,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No27c415.53$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.121,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes58c376.26$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c316.43$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.913,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No57c267$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8133746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No57c248.6$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.771,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c236.01$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes62c233.17$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes39c213.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3546743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No51c213.24$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No56c201.92$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb3a…d3e3backed No50c194.17$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.175786%49 W · 8 L+11.2wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes23c186.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c181.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes57c178.73$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c157.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes56c148.74$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8430144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes59c133.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No14c132.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1516832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd509…d6b7backed No39c132.28$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No40c123.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.829038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No61c123.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.241,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c113.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.184,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No34c113$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.249,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No61c104.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1858152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No56c103.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c101$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.52,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes39c100.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a96…c617backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b2…d3d9backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.831,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes59c99.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5724732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes25c99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.856219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes61c98.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c77.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.625,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes67c75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2533350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.015,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No57c69.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked No41c63.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.283132.3%10 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No48c63.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.081,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes65c61.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.022245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed No39c60.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5218222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…54acbacked Yes64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No34c59.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No49c55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0575546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb451…467bbacked No50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes63c51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1346452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No29c50.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c2…f0a4backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No35c48.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c48.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.98,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No34c48.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.864,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes52c46.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No46c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2223560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No76c44.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes63c43.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1215152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes60c43.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes58c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4627756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No73c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No41c40.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.233654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes36c40.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed No28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes57c39.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.682,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked No43c38.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.236243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No61c37.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.764859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No55c37.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No50c36.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes36c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9648919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes56c35.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c35.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.191,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No71c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.623241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c26.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.964,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf713…86fdbacked No47c25.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.284645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No61c24.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.541,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af3…bcb4backed No64c24.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.774658.7%27 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f0…da2bbacked No50c24.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No64c22.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1615868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No63c21.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed4c…03cabacked No63c21.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.993652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes66c21.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.