MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce22af1e4e72958e35c9d245628510408f21eb58306b04ada6ea6d80a007600e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Giants | 60c | 20,141$12,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,056.52 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Nationals | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nationals | 40c | 7,390$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals | 43c | 7,000$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 29c | 4,974$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 11c | 4,850$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.56 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Nationals | 42c | 4,226$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.09 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Giants | 57c | 3,500$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Giants | 60c | 3,458$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.37 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals | 40c | 2,594$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.28 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Giants | 57c | 2,292$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.55 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Giants | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nationals | 40c | 1,520$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 39c | 1,136$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.36 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Giants | 55c | 1,051$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.03 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…8a95backed Giants | 60c | 1,012$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Giants | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…0501backed Nationals | 40c | 990$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Giants | 60c | 829.99$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.99 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Nationals | 39c | 699.81$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.93 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Nationals | 40c | 624.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Nationals | 14c | 539.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals | 30c | 463.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…1596backed Nationals | 25c | 403.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nationals | 23c | 371.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Nationals | 12c | 366.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals | 21c | 358.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Giants | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Giants | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Giants | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Nationals | 42c | 298.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Nationals | 27c | 281.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 130 | 21.5%28 W · 102 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Giants | 58c | 249.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Nationals | 23c | 240.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Giants | 59c | 234.48$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…818ebacked Giants | 76c | 228.69$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Giants | 60c | 216.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Giants | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Nationals | 31c | 199.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Giants | 61c | 196.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Nationals | 40c | 164.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…f8edbacked Giants | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Nationals | 35c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…e1b0backed Giants | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Giants | 58c | 120.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Nationals | 25c | 120.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 404 | 3.5%14 W · 390 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Giants | 54c | 108.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Nationals | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nationals | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Nationals | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Giants | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Nationals | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nationals | 14c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nationals | 22c | 79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Nationals | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Giants | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…7fddbacked Nationals | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e20…5e20backed Giants | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Giants | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Nationals | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…a5b9backed Nationals | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Giants | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Nationals | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Giants | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…e0babacked Nationals | 41c | 27.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 40c | 25.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Giants | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Nationals | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48fb…b900backed Giants | 60c | 22.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Giants | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Giants | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.